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WASHINGTON (AP) — Just a few weeks ago, the path ahead for the Federal Reserve looked straightforward: With inflation cooling and the job market slowing, the Fed appeared on track to steadily cut interest rates. In September, its officials predicted that they would reduce their benchmark rate four times next year, on top of three rate cuts this year. Yet that outlook has swiftly changed. Several surprisingly strong economic reports, combined with President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals, have led to a decidedly more cautious tone from the Fed that could mean fewer cuts and higher interest rates than had been expected. Fewer rate cuts would likely mean continued high mortgage rates and other borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Auto loans would remain expensive. Small businesses would still face high loan rates. In a speech last week in Dallas, Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the Fed isn’t necessarily inclined to cut rates each time it meets every six weeks. “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.” His comments were widely seen as signaling potentially fewer rate cuts in 2025, a view that sent stock prices falling after they had surged with Trump’s election. Trump has proposed higher tariffs on all imports as well as mass deportations of undocumented immigrants — steps that economists say would worsen inflation. The president-elect has also proposed a menu of tax cuts and deregulation, which might help spur economic growth but would also fan inflation if businesses couldn’t find enough workers to meet increased consumer demand. And recent economic data suggests that inflation pressures could prove more persistent and economic growth more resilient than was thought just a few months ago. At his most recent news conference, Powell suggested that the economy could even accelerate in 2025. Wall Street traders and some economists now envision just two, rather than four, rate cuts next year. And while the Fed will likely cut its key rate when it meets in mid-December, traders foresee a nearly even likelihood that the central bank could leave the rate unchanged. “I absolutely would anticipate that they’ll ease up on the pace of cuts,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “The potential for growth to remain strong — that has to call into question whether they will feel either the need or ability to cut rates at the pace they had previously forecast.” Economists at Bank of America expect annual inflation to remain “stuck” above 2.5%, higher than the Fed’s 2% target level, in part given the likelihood that Trump’s economic proposals, if carried out, would fuel price pressures. The economists now foresee just three rate reductions in the coming months, in December, March and June. And they expect the Fed to stop easing credit once its benchmark rate, now at 4.6%, reaches 3.9%. Krishna Guha, an analyst at investment bank Evercore ISI, wrote last week that, “We think the looming Trump presidency is helping to drive a change in tone from the Fed — including Powell — towards a warier and more hedged posture on the pace and extent of further cuts.” Trump has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods and a “universal’’ tariff of 10% or 20% on everything else that enters the United States. On Wednesday, a top executive at Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, warned that Trump’s tariff proposals could force the company to raise prices on imported goods. “Tariffs will be inflationary for customers,” John David Rainey, Walmart’s chief financial officer, told The Associated Press. Other consumer goods and retail companies, including Lowe’s, Stanley Black & Decker, and Columbia Sportswear, have issued similar warnings. In trying to gauge the right level for interest rates, the Fed’s policymakers face a significant obstacle: They don’t know how much further they can reduce rates before reaching a level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy — what’s called the “neutral rate.” The officials don’t want to cut rates so low as overheat the economy and reignite inflation. Nor do they want to keep rates so high as to damage the job market and the economy and risk a recession. An unusually wide divergence has developed among the 19 officials on the Fed’s rate-setting committee as to where the neutral rate is. In September, the officials collectively projected that the neutral rate lies between 2.4% and 3.8%. Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, has noted that that range is twice as large as it was two years ago. In a recent speech, Logan suggested that the Fed’s benchmark rate might be only slightly above the neutral level now. If so, that would mean few additional rate cuts are needed. Other officials disagree. In a recent interview with The Associated Press, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Fed’s Chicago branch, said he thought the neutral rate is much lower than the Fed’s current rate. If so, many more rate cuts would likely be appropriate. “I still think we’re far from what anybody thinks is neutral,” Goolsbee said. “We still got a ways to come down.” Perhaps the biggest unknown is how Trump’s proposals on tariffs, deportations and tax cuts will shape the Fed’s rate decisions. Powell has stressed that the Fed won’t change its policymaking until it’s clear what changes the new administration will actually implement. As is customary for the Fed, though, Powell avoided commenting directly on presidential policies. But he did acknowledge that the Fed’s economists are assessing the potential effects of a Trump presidency. “We don’t actually really know what policies will be put in place,” Powell said. “We don’t know over what timeframe.” Another factor is that the economy is much different now than when Trump first took office in January 2017. With unemployment lower than it was then, economists say, additional stimulus through tax cuts might create more demand than the economy can handle, possibly fueling inflation. Tax cuts, “starting from an economy close to full employment, will lead to inflation and, by implication, higher Fed policy rates and a stronger dollar,” Olivier Blanchard, a former top economist at the International Monetary Fund and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote in a recent commentary. In 2018, when Trump imposed a slew of tariffs on imports from China, as well as on steel, aluminum and washing machines, Fed economists produced an analysis of how they should respond. Their conclusion? As long as the tariffs were one-time increases and the public didn’t expect inflation to rise, the Fed wouldn’t have to respond by raising its key rate. Yet last week, Powell acknowledged that the economy was different now, with inflation a bigger threat. “Six years ago,” he said, “inflation was really low and inflation expectations were low. And now, we’ve come way back down, but we’re not back where we were. It’s a different situation.” Brought to you by www.srnnews.com

SANTA CRUZ, Calif. (AP) — A woman told police that she was sexually assaulted in 2017 by Pete Hegseth after he took her phone, blocked the door to a California hotel room and refused to let her leave, according to a detailed investigative report made public late Wednesday. Hegseth, a Fox News personality and President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to be defense secretary, told police at the time that the encounter had been consensual and denied any wrongdoing, the report said. News of the allegations surfaced last week when local officials released a brief statement confirming that a woman had accused Hegseth of sexual assault in October 2017 after he had spoken at a Republican women’s event in Monterey. Hegseth’s lawyer did not immediately respond to a request for comment early Thursday. He has said Hegseth paid the woman in 2023 to head off the threat of a baseless lawsuit. The 22-page police report was released in response to a public records request and offers the first detailed account of what the woman alleged to have transpired — one that is at odds with Hegseth’s version of events. The report cited police interviews with the alleged victim, a nurse who treated her, a hotel staffer, another woman at the event and Hegseth. The woman’s name was not released, and The Associated Press does not typically name people who say they have been sexually assaulted. A spokeswoman for the Trump transition said early Thursday that the “report corroborates what Mr. Hegseth’s attorneys have said all along: the incident was fully investigated and no charges were filed because police found the allegations to be false.” The report does not say that police found the allegations were false. Police recommended the case report be forwarded to the Monterey County District Attorney’s Office for review. Investigators were first alerted to the alleged assault, the report said, by a nurse who called them after a patient requested a sexual assault exam. The patient told medical personnel she believed she was assaulted five days earlier but couldn’t remember much about what had happened. She reported something may have been slipped into her drink before ending up in the hotel room where she said the assault occurred. Police collected the unwashed dress and underwear she had worn that night, the report said. The woman’s partner, who was staying at the hotel with her, told police that he was worried about her that night after she didn’t come back to their room. At 2 a.m., he went to the hotel bar, but she wasn’t there. She made it back a few hours later, apologizing that she “must have fallen asleep.” A few days later, she told him she had been sexually assaulted. The woman, who helped organize the California Federation of Republican women gathering at which Hegseth spoke, told police that she had witnessed the TV anchor acting inappropriately throughout the night and saw him stroking multiple women’s thighs. She texted a friend that Hegseth was giving off a “creeper” vibe, according to the report. After the event, the woman and others attended an afterparty in a hotel suite where she said she confronted Hegseth, telling him that she “did not appreciate how he treated women,” the report states. A group of people, including Hegseth and the woman, decamped for the hotel’s bar. That’s when “things got fuzzy,” the woman told police. She remembered having a drink at the bar with Hegseth and others, the police report states. She also told police that she argued with Hegseth near the hotel pool, an account that is supported by a hotel staffer who was sent to handle the disturbance and spoke to police, according to the report. Soon, she told police, she was inside a hotel room with Hegseth, who took her phone and blocked the door with his body so that she could not leave, according to the report. She also told police she remembered “saying ‘no’ a lot,” the report said. Her next memory was laying on a couch or bed with Hegseth hovering over her bare-chested, his dog tags dangling over her, the report states. Hegseth served in the National Guard, rising to the rank of major. After Hegseth finished, she recalled him asking if she was “OK,” the report states. She told police she did not recall how she got back to her own hotel room and had since suffered from nightmares and memory loss. At the time of the alleged assault in 2017, Hegseth, now 44, was going through a divorce with his second wife, with whom he has three children. She filed for divorce after he had a child with a Fox News producer who is now his wife, according to court records and social media posts by Hegseth. His first marriage ended in 2009, also after infidelity by Hegseth, according to court records. Hegseth said he attended an after party and drank beer but did not consume liquor, and acknowledged being “buzzed” but not drunk. He said he met the woman at the hotel bar, and she led him by the arm back to his hotel room, which surprised him because he initially had no intention of having sex with her, the report said. Hegseth told investigators that the sexual encounter that followed was consensual, adding that he explicitly asked more than once if she was comfortable. Hegseth said in the morning the woman “showed early signs of regret,” and he assured her that he wouldn’t tell anyone about the encounter. Hegseth’s attorney said a payment was made to the woman as part of a confidential settlement a few years after the police investigation because Hegseth was concerned that she was prepared to file a lawsuit that he feared could have resulted in him being fired from Fox News, where he was a popular host. The attorney would not reveal the amount of the payment. ___ Slodysko reported from Washington and Linderman reported from Baltimore. Brought to you by www.srnnews.com

SANTA ROSA, Calif. (AP) — A major storm pummeled Northern California with rain and snow on Wednesday night and threatened to cause flash flooding and rockslides in the latest wave of damaging weather to wash over the West Coast. The National Weather Service extended a flood watch into Saturday for areas north of San Francisco as the strongest atmospheric river — a large plume of moisture flowing onshore — that California and the Pacific Northwest has seen this season inundated the region. The storm system unleashed winds the night before that left two people dead and hundreds of thousands without power in Washington state. Up to 16 inches of rain (about 41 centimeters) was forecast in Northern California and southwestern Oregon through Friday. By Wednesday evening, some areas in Northern California had experienced heavy rain, including Santa Rosa, which had seen about 5 inches (about 13 centimeters) within 24 hours, according to Marc Chenard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Dangerous flash flooding, rockslides and debris flows were possible, officials warned. About a dozen small landslides had struck in northern California in the last 24 hours, including one on Highway 281 on Wednesday morning that caused a vehicle crash, said Chenard. The National Weather Service in the Bay Area warned people that the atmospheric river was focused on the North Bay and to “expect heavy rain to continue tonight, Thursday into Friday. This will result in mudslides, road closures.” The storm system, which first hit Tuesday, is considered a “ bomb cyclone,” which occurs when a cyclone intensifies rapidly. A winter storm watch was in place for the northern Sierra Nevada above 3,500 feet (1,066 meters), where 15 inches (38 centimeters) of snow was possible over two days. Wind gusts could top 75 mph (121 kph) in mountain areas, forecasters said. The storm had already dumped more than a foot of snow along the Cascades by Wednesday evening, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters warned of blizzard and whiteout conditions and near impossible travel at pass level. In Washington, there were nearly 376,000 power outage reports Wednesday evening, resulting from strong winds and rain the night before, according to poweroutage.us. Falling trees struck homes and littered roads across western Washington, killing at least two people. One woman in Lynnwood was killed when a large tree fell on a homeless encampment, while another woman in Bellevue was killed when a tree fell on a home. More than a dozen schools were closed in the Seattle area Wednesday and some opted to extend those closures through Thursday. In California, there were reports of nearly 21,000 power outages as of Wednesday evening. Southbound Interstate 5 was closed for an 11-mile (18-kilometer) stretch from Ashland, Oregon, to the California border on Wednesday morning due to extreme winter weather conditions in northern California, according to the Oregon Department of Transportation. It was expected to be a long-term closure, the department said. Hundreds of flights were delayed and dozens were canceled at the San Francisco International Airport, according to Flight Aware. The weather service issued a flood watch for parts of southwestern Oregon through Friday evening, while rough winds and seas temporarily halted a ferry route in northwestern Washington between Port Townsend and Coupeville. ___ Golden reported from Seattle. Brought to you by www.srnnews.com

More than six years after he was exonerated based on insufficient evidence, a man who was charged as an 11-year-old with shooting his father’s pregnant fiancee to death wants a federal jury to make the Pennsylvania State Police pay for the years he spent in juvenile detention. Jordan Brown’s federal civil rights case is expected to get underway in Pittsburgh early next month, nearly 16 years after he was first accused of the February 2009 death of Kenzie Marie Houk inside their rented farmhouse in Wampum, Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is among about a dozen states that do not have wrongful conviction compensation laws, leaving a lawsuit as Brown’s legal option to seek compensation for claims that four former troopers fabricated reports and manufactured evidence. Brown, now 27, was adjudicated delinquent in juvenile court of first-degree murder and the homicide of an unborn child. He had been released from custody at age 18 before the state Supreme Court in July 2018 reversed his conviction. The four former troopers — one now deceased — that were named in the lawsuit had leading roles in the murder investigation, conducting interviews and drafting the affidavit of probable cause used to charge Brown. They are being sued over allegations they violated his federal civil rights by filing charges that lacked probable cause and fabricating evidence. State police spokesperson Myles Snyder said the agency, following policy on pending litigation, would not comment on the lawsuit. The troopers have argued they did not fabricate or conceal any evidence, nor did they violate Brown’s constitutional rights. They’ve said they had probable cause to arrest him, given what they see as his ability and opportunity to commit the crime and that he possessed a 20-gauge shotgun. Brown is seeking damages for emotional and mental harm, lost wages, legal costs and the time he spent in custody. His attorney, Alec Wright, said Brown had been in juvenile facilities for three or four years before he was old enough to comprehend his predicament. “At that point Jordan has two options,” Wright said. “Succumb to the pain of not seeing your family, not celebrating birthdays, not being free, or do your best to get through this situation that your family says has a finite end. He chose the latter.” The National Registry of Exonerations says about 800 civil awards since 1989 to exonerees have amounted to about $3.3 billion, or roughly $325,000 for each year of wrongful incarceration. For Pennsylvania, the registry lists 32 civil awards that were worth a collective $110 million. Jordan Brown is not among those listed on the National Registry of Exonerations because the registry requires there be some evidence favorable to the defendant that was not presented at trial. In his case, his juvenile adjudication was vacated on grounds of insufficient evidence. “It’s hard to imagine a more horrifying experience than having been convicted of a crime you didn’t commit,” said George Washington University law professor Jeffrey Gutman, who maintains the exoneration compensation database. “You’ve lost your liberty, your livelihood, your family connections, potentially your health, often for decades, for something you didn’t do. So society owes people who have had a terrible roll of the dice a remedy for that.” Jordan and his father, Chris Brown, were living with the 26-year-old Houk and her two girls, aged 4 and 7, when Houk was shot to death in her bed. Chris Brown had left for work and was eliminated as a suspect. Police and prosecutors pursued a theory that Jordan Brown, then a fifth-grader, used a youth model, 20-gauge shotgun to kill Houk in the minutes before he and Houk’s 7-year-old daughter went down their snow-covered driveway to meet the morning school bus. The shooting came to light when a crew picking up firewood realized Houk’s 4-year-old daughter was crying at the front door at about 9 a.m. on Feb. 20, 2009. By 3 a.m. the next day Brown had been charged as an adult, although his case was later sent to juvenile court. In 2012, Brown was adjudicated delinquent, which in Pennsylvania is the juvenile equivalent to being found guilty. Houk’s sister, Jennifer Kraner, said she was inside the juvenile courtroom for proceedings against Brown and believes he did it. “Obviously, there’s never justice, to bring her back,” Kraner said. “But it’s not something we’re comfortable with, him becoming a millionaire upon it. It seems absolutely ludicrous.” A key piece of prosecution evidence came from interviews investigators had with the 7-year-old. The girl said, according to the lawsuit, that she saw Jordan Brown with two guns and that “she heard a ‘big boom’ before Jordan came out and they went to the bus.” Brown argued in the lawsuit that the interviews “contained numerous inconsistencies and contradictions” and were not reliable. The state Supreme Court freed Brown, saying in a unanimous opinion that investigators produced no eyewitnesses, no DNA or fingerprint evidence, and no blood or biological material on the boy’s clothing. Police investigated Houk’s ex-boyfriend, who had just moved 10 miles (16 kilometers) from her home, but eliminated him as a suspect. Houk had told him a paternity test showed that Houk’s 4-year-old daughter was not his child, and the night before Houk was killed, he had confronted Houk’s parents at a bar, according to the lawsuit. The lawsuit alleges the ex-boyfriend had made death threats against Houk and several of her relatives, although he denied doing so in testimony at Brown’s juvenile court hearing. A 2014 state Supreme Court summary of the case said the ex-boyfriend told police in a voluntary interview that he had been in the basement of his parents’ home after 10 p.m. the night before Houk was killed. At Brown’s hearing, he said he left the next morning at about 9 a.m. to return an auto part to a store. A test of his hands showed no gunshot residue and there was still snow on his truck that investigators said would not have survived the drive to the house where Houk was killed, according to the court summary. Brown told police he saw a black pickup truck on the property the morning of the killing, a description that matched the ex-boyfriend’s Ford F-150. Wright believes no investigation into the killing has occurred since the state Supreme Court freed his client. Lawrence County District Attorney Joshua Lamancusa did not return a message seeking comment. When the lawsuit was filed four years ago, Brown told The Associated Press he hoped a favorable verdict might dispel any lingering doubts about his innocence. “You don’t just win a lawsuit over injustice for no reason,” he said. These days Brown is running a western Pennsylvania beer distributorship with his father and has plans to finish his college degree, Wright said. Brought to you by www.srnnews.com

BOSTON (AP) — A Boston auction house is going to take bidders out to the ballpark with an online auction of a team executive’s Red Sox memorabilia — including four World Series trophies. Items belonging to former Red Sox President and CEO Larry Lucchino, who died in April at the age of 78, will be auctioned starting Saturday with proceeds going to The Lucchino Family Foundation, which funds charities throughout New England. “My brother, Larry, embodied the spirit of generosity,” said Frank Lucchino, a retired judge from Pennsylvania. Items include Lucchino’s Commissioner’s Trophy and ring from the curse-ending 2004 World Series in which the Red Sox had to first beat the New York Yankees for the opportunity to face the St. Louis Cardinals in the series. Two other championship trophies from Lucchino’s tenure, 2007 and 2013, are being auctioned along with another one from 2018. Other items include 2004 and 2007 championship banners that flew at Fenway Park, a couple of stadium seats and a turnstile, and an electric guitar signed by Boston rockers Aerosmith when they played at Fenway in 2010. Lucchino served as Baltimore Orioles president, leading the effort to build Camden Yards, before doing the same thing for the San Diego Padres, building a new ballpark. In Boston, he helped to assemble the new ownership group led by John Henry and Tom Werner that bought the franchise in 2002. The group opted to renovate Fenway Park, rather than replace it. The online auction is being handled by Bonhams Skinner. Included in the auction were non-Red Sox items owned by Lucchino including a World Series ring won with the Orioles and a Super Bowl ring from Washington. Brought to you by www.srnnews.com